Expert Opinion

According to a recent survey, most experts believe that the probability of zoonotic origin is 90% or higher.

When experts respond to a question about which they are fully knowledgeable, their estimates tend to form a narrow bell curve around the correct answer. However, in this survey the estimates from a multi-peak distribution with one out of five respondents stating that a lab-related accident was the most likely origin of Covid-19.

Most likely, the divergence is caused by the conflict of interests:

• Virologists do not want their field and, by association, themselves to be blamed for the deaths of millions of people. 
• Disagreeing with the official viewpoint carries significant career risks.