An impact X for a "Pro" ("Con") argument implies that it increases (decreases) the odds of the positive resolution by a factor of X. For example, if an argument convinces you to change the odds from 1:1 to 3:1 or 1:3, the impact of the argument is 3.
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| Pro | |
| Location The first cases of COVID-19 were reported in the city of Wuhan. The Wuhan Institute of Virology hosts one of two BSL-4 facilities in China and has been engaged in research on coronaviruses. | |
| Comments: 3 | Impact: |
| Pro | |
DEFUSE research proposal
In 2018, the U.S.-based EcoHealth Alliance submitted a grant proposal to DARPA describing its intent to test engineering bat coronaviruses in a way that would make them more easily transmissible to humans. A significant part of the experiments was planned to be carried out at the Wuhan lab. | |
| Comments: 2 | Impact: |
| Pro | |
| WIV virus database
Two months before the first official case of COVID-19, the Wuhan Institute's virus database was taken offline. | |
| Comments: 2 | Impact: |
| Con | |
Wet Market Most early cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan center around the local wet market, where foxes, raccoon dogs, and other live mammals susceptible to the virus were sold live immediately before the pandemic began. | |
| Comments: 4 | Impact: |
| Con | |
| Expert Opinion According to a recent survey, most experts believe that the probability of zoonotic origin is 90% or higher. | |
| Comments: 1 | Impact: |
| Con | |
Base Rates Historically, zoonotic transmission has been a much more common cause of epidemics than laboratory leaks. | |
| Comments: 1 | Impact: |
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What is the probability that the COVID-19 resulted from the Lab Leak? |
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%
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